I do not usually make predictions about elections. This is not a prediction. But I want to make a couple of observations ahead of Tuesday, if for no other reason than to see how things play out against my own assessments.
We have seen record early voting. As of this morning something like 82 million ballots have already been cast. How they will be counted is at issue, particularly in four states—Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. Be that as it may, it is the numbers that interest me here.
Traditionally, it appears Republicans benefit from low turn-out. In 2016 we had 53% turnout.…